Sunday, December 19, 2021

Pre-business plan - solar electric generators



 A pre-business plan is between a back of envelope calculation and a formal business plan. The idea is to read on to determine if the critical variables of a business plan have been under stood. One would call space-x chief deliberations on hyper loop and boring company as a pre-business plan. One could hire a plan maker to convert it to a formal plan.

Two related ideas are discussed here. One is a personal roof-top solar rooftop plan roof-solar. Another is joint solar-orchard plan joint-plan. roof-solar started as as way to reduce electric bill. The joint-plan as a good business plan. Both involve non-trivial business arithmetic cost ideas.

The joint plan addresses an idea that will discourage competition other than me. Government no longer buys electricity at better rates as the cost of solar panels plummets. Now the return on electric roof with enough sun hole to shoot for semi-shade agriculture below will probably be equal to cost. It is profits from agriculture below that keeps it profitable. Such a venture absent my expertise in agriculture in chemicals and planet medicine would be ruinous. No usual farmer will be smart enough to restrict crops or understand benefits of solar cover without profit - the panels will get cheaper and coverament will lose any reasons to pressure distcoms! So I expect an early mover advantage. Competion is not a problem in next few months.

Competion is not a problem in roof-solar either, every one is welcome for many months or even years.

Now the meat - solar capital costs 50,000 per kilowatt, delivers 3 kw per 10 sqm. So a 200 kw joint-plan will cost 1 crore and need 2 bigha with half covered It will require 2 people to maintain it. also free to do agriculture and cost 10 lakh per annum, paid for by sale of electricity. Agriculture will yield the profit, under 5 lakh.

Bank will finance half to 80 %. Return will be 10% to 40%, depending on financing.

The roof-solar will cost 200,000, but draw 40% subsidy in 2021. With subsidy, electric costs will be halved in months other then overcast, and few costs. Even brainless USA methods can be used but what happens when government reduces/eliminates subsidy, risk-taking companies will bankrupt! Happened in Nevada!

Comments welcome and incorporated.

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