Why is the USA so important to me? Is it being fucked and is there a way out of it? Why does India thrive? Can we predict the end of this journey? Does this matter at all to me?
The first three questions is about the USA. It is a relevant truth to me, dedicated to remaining modest citizen despite what I can achieve and ready to take risks, meaningful now since I believe in wish-death and the belief that I can partake in it. It is no longer academic.
So why did the USA fail? Why did India thrive? Why does China thrive? Understanding these issues delivers to non-actor me, meaningful prediction ability. If I understand markets that well, I will be a very rich man. I do believe that prices within a decade are best handled by chaos theory i.e. every soothsayer is a fraud. But a decade-wide or larger prediction is probabilistic and doable within the wide net of investment. That applies to both the political theory and the stock market. It is asymmetric prediction, winner prediction is slow, while losers are fast.
The hardest change in me comes from rising of India and China and the reducing strengthening of the USA. The link above blame rightly the effect of size on decision speed but that is only a visible effect, the rise of Asian giants (increasing centralization) and the weakening of the USA (increasing decentralization without effective coordination) is not caused by size but the politically correct speech by a technical specialist, thus their weakening. Both Asians reaped the benefit of effective coordination by increasing centralization. I have believed for a long in decentralization which improves political correctness. It pails before centralization benefits, Modi wins, my feelings, because he listens to key bureaucrats as opposed to elected riff-raff. Xi gets effect for free. Both are personally uncorrupt, don't tolerate corruption, and have publically damaged lower corrupt.
One consequence in India has been the marginalization of Congress even in opposition. Better luck in HP and Uttarakhand with the solid tired-government sentiment. I predict the BJP government in UP and egg on the face of sir Akhilesh.
Modi juggernaut goes on to 2024 and likely another 5-years then. The replacement of centralization is replaced by both, chosen by effective coordination and anti-corruption transparency, even if privacy-incorrect! Political correctness is way too important and must never be abandoned even if operating in opposition. It is important to shut up political correctness sellers applying way excessive analysis to determine alleged incorrectness.
No comments:
Post a Comment