Monday, March 20, 2017

Reasoned prediction RP



I have great love for and belief in application of scientific method outside physical sciences, in other words define the scientific method with objective definition (ie applicable by all, not just me). Rational skepticism is current best but I have borderline problems, two biggest being absurd applications in social sciences (will remain despite epicycles added!) and lack of statistical communitarian nature of truth (is abortion evil or not and when?).

One way to broaden rational skepticism is rational Stoicism which improves by admitting  statistical communitarian nature of truth that has to be accepted for social life. One can not pragmatically, even logically play the doubter always and refuse to accept any thing, such morons lead very troubled lives. I know because I went through that phase. The answer is in clever synthesis of the contradictions. I have found that almost all thesis are true in domination contexts where most other thesis fail. Clever synthesis is construction of context functions that reduce the other thesis discard able small in dominance intervals. For example, given choice between who is better CM, A or B, one can synthesize as 2.5 years A and 2.5 years B. If A and B are parties, the temporal ratio may depend on strength. With multi-Representative seats, as in aaqgs-democracy, coalition building is expected. I expect India to be in developed country domain in my life, plagued by centrifugal local strengths and consider  multi-Representative aaqgs-democracy essential then, to encourage nation-local coalition building. Given my dream of massive devolution, SARRC unity and very strong bio-identity based local citizenship, competition based unity is possible through aaqgs-aadhaar.

Reasoned prediction RP, not RS, is my new scientific method. Predictions can be empirical and statistical, but not yet science. An objective  reasoning process must also be given. It removes all kinds of spurious correlations present in naive science. British babies over 50 years tracked stork population in Norway! So what? Sir moron has predicted US president since 1980! So what? Its simple NP-completeness, -ve statements are easy to disprove, impossible to prove unless there is a mathematical proof.

Which brings me to biggest defeat in my life. At some point in 1985, was held a CS conference in Las Cruses, NM. Opposite sides were Dr. Dijkstra, greatest CS ever (goto
considered harmful) and me. Testing can show absence of simple bugs only, only a proof can certify, the RS (skeptic) position. Absent testing, even simple bugs only can hurt consumer, trusting program proof is and will be stupid long, the RS (stoic) position. My head was livid on arguing with his God. He went to Las Vegas, essentially blocking tenure, I to Massachusetts, never have talked since.

Predicting and Changing Behavior: The Reasoned Action Approach

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