Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Prioritizing Science 2


 

Some folks never investigate links. For them and for autotranslation purposes (link does not help, full translation pushes fair use too far). This then is a translation of excerpts.

https://www.theverge.com/22789561/nasa-jwst-james-webb-space-telescope-priorities-astronomy-astrophysics-exoplanets

JWST is one of the most anticipated space science missions of the 21st century, as it has the ability to reshape astronomy and astrophysics as we know it.

That’s because the telescope is the closest thing we have to a time machine. Sporting a 21-foot-wide gold-plated mirror, JWST will be able to see in the infrared with incredible sensitivity. It’ll be able to see objects that are 10 to 100 times fainter than what the Hubble Space Telescope can see, and it’ll be capable of seeing things in 10 times better detail. It will gather light from stars and galaxies located up to 13.6 billion light-years away — light that has taken 13.6 billion years to reach the telescope’s mirrors. Since the Universe is thought to be roughly 13.8 billion years old, the galaxies that JWST will be observing likely formed just 100 to 250 million years after the Big Bang. Our Universe was in its infancy then, and JWST will be providing us with baby photos.

In addition to peering back in time, the telescope will help us understand the large-scale structure of the Universe, and perhaps tell us if it will go on expanding forever. It will peer into the centers of galaxies, finding supermassive black holes and helping astronomers learn how these enigmatic objects have evolved over time. It will observe the births and deaths of stars. It will even look back at our own Solar System to study the faintest objects at the edge of our cosmic neighborhood. And it will be able to look at the edges of worlds orbiting around distant stars. “Nearly every area of astronomy that you can think of will be addressed,” Christine Chen, an associate astronomer at STScI, tells The Verge.

Naively, NASA originally envisioned a launch between 2007 and 2011, for a total cost between $1 billion and $3.5 billion. But JWST continued to miss one target launch date after next, while its total cost ballooned to $9.7 billion.

Since the first detection of an exoplanet was confirmed in 1992, we’ve discovered thousands of these far-off worlds orbiting alien stars. In 2017, astronomers shocked the world when they announced the discovery of an entire alien solar system, consisting of seven planets roughly the size of Earth all orbiting around a dwarf star. And three of the seven planets, known as the TRAPPIST-1 system, sit in the star’s habitable zone, where temperatures are thought to be just right so that water can pool on a planet’s surface. A lot of JWST time goes here, the best hope of detecting life.

JWST, however, is powerful enough that it may be able to detect light passing directly through the atmospheres of some alien worlds and use that light to say what kinds of chemicals are present in the atmosphere. Perhaps, it could even detect signs of life.


However, STScI had to wait a long time before figuring out the schedule for JWST’s first year, and there were a few false starts along the way. When it seemed like the telescope would be ready to launch in 2019, the Institute called on astronomers to submit their proposals by March 2018. Then just a week before the deadline, NASA announced that the telescope wouldn’t launch until 2020 at the earliest. STScI abruptly postponed the deadline until a more concrete launch date was determined.

Another postponement came again in March 2020, due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, after what seemed like an eternity, astronomers turned in their proposals by November 24th, 2020, two days before Thanksgiving. Then it was time for STScI to sift through the more than 1,000 ideas that had been submitted.

The Institute created a Time Allocation Committee including astronomers and astrophysicists from around the world. They were separated into 18 panels, each one consisting of about 10 people tasked with looking over proposals for different areas of space science and ranking them based on three important criteria: how much the proposal will impact knowledge within a subfield, how much it will advance astronomy in general, and whether the proposed idea requires the unique capabilities of JWST to be successful.

With all of these benchmarks in mind, the committee got to work evaluating all of the proposals. To try to eliminate as much bias as possible from the selection process, the process was “dual anonymous.” That means that the people writing the proposals had no idea who would be evaluating them, and the people on the committee had no idea whose proposals they were analyzing.

Ultimately, STScI selected a total of 266 proposals, submitted by scientists from 41 countries around the globe. Tremblay, the Harvard astrophysicist, had submitted nine proposals for JWST’s first year.  All 9 were rejected. It was a disappointment but definitely not a shock. “I wasn’t broken up by not getting time this year,” Tremblay tells The Verge. “I knew it would be immensely, immensely competitive for Cycle 1, as it should be. And it’s okay. We’ll resubmit again.” Slap on the face of all commie and socialist. How can the public stupid joker call Modi a thief who gave away vaccine doses earmarked for our children! Let UP teach a harsh lesson to Congress and the purported socialist.

Lady Casey a whopping 208 hours with JWST to fulfill her project, the most of anyone who had submitted proposals. The project will stare at a particularly large patch of sky the size of three full Moons, an area that spans up to 63 million light-years across. Doing so will create a portrait of the young universe similar to Hubble’s iconic Hubble Deep Field, which showcased some of the earliest galaxies we could observe at the time. With JWST’s enhanced capability, the team will be imaging galaxies that are even older at even greater levels of detail. “If the Hubble Deep Field were printed on an eight-and-a-half by 11 sheets of paper (both inches) Cosmos Web would be like a 16-foot by 16-foot mural on the side of a building,” says Casey.

Staying silent so as not to wake her sleeping child, Casey jubilantly logged into Slack and messaged her colleague and co-principal investigator on the project, Jeyhan Kartaltepe, an astrophysicist at the Rochester Institute of Technology.

Does someone say women's liberation?

Aside from Cosmos Web, the seven-planet TRAPPIST-1 system will be getting a lot of attention during JWST’s first year, with up to seven different programs dedicated to studying this strange cluster of worlds.

Roughly 10,000 hours of observing time are allotted to different groups for JWST’s first year of life. About 6,000 hours were given to the scientists who submitted proposals around the world, while nearly 4,000 hours were already set aside for scientists who helped design and build JWST and its instruments. The STScI also has about 460 hours of discretionary time which have been allotted for what is known as “Early Release Observations.” 10,000 exceeds one year deliberate, for JWST must rotate in space and may have errors in that.

And then, after a period of transformational science has passed, it’ll be time to submit another round of proposals. Though Tremblay will be involved with one JWST proposal for Cycle 1 as a collaborator rather than the principal investigator, he does plan to submit his ideas again for Cycle 2. And he’ll understand if it doesn’t get accepted. “As an astronomer, we get professionally used to rejections; I could wallpaper my hallway with rejections that I’ve received,” Tremblay says. “It’s just a reflection of the fact that the community has immense demand for the telescope. And I think it’s a great thing.”

I wish I can take that stoic attitude on fails.


Tuesday, December 21, 2021

regenerative medicine

 


 Combining knowledge of chemistry, physics, biology, and engineering, scientists from McGill University develop a biomaterial tough enough to repair the heart, muscles, and vocal cords, representing a major advance in regenerative medicine.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/11/211130150456.htm


JWST science

 


Ahead of JWST’s launch, STScI had the daunting task of figuring out which of the 1,173 proposals for the observatory’s first year of life — known as Cycle 1 — should get time with the telescope. How do you prioritize what the most advanced piece of space equipment in the world should do when it first turns on? 

Well, the science has to be nothing short of revolutionary.

“What is deemed most interesting is science that is considered transformational — that will change our view of the universe,” Klaus Pontoppidan, an astronomer and JWST project scientist at STScI, tells The Verge. “We don’t want the observatory to do things a little better than what has been done before. We wanted to answer fundamental questions that cannot be answered any other way.”

That makes Webb true successor of Hubell. Like Yogi of Modi! It rubber-stamps my decision in 2001 to live on regardless, and my love for 1000 year life. Even I am astounded how much science in ageing can do, towards likely wish-death even for me.

https://www.theverge.com/22789561/nasa-jwst-james-webb-space-telescope-priorities-astronomy-astrophysics-exoplanets



Monday, December 20, 2021

solar electric generators - roof-solar

 


The following are selected responses to my roof-solar written up earlier. I am disappointed in the lack of input per the Joint-plan. There is something fundamental I do here. Every business plan requires hard work to implement. USA methods reduce to one of six types

1. Single direct investments

2. Multiple direct investments 

3. Portfolio

4. LP investments

5. Corporate investment

6. Co-practice

This is followed by several Angels. USA VC deals average 11,7 million dollars, angels average 330 thousand. It is 1/30 times. I, maybe alone, feel that I was a great hungry startup developer but never prospered because no angel dangled a win-win deal before me.

Clearly, I am not hungry enough! But I believe there are many like me, await a juicy business plan ready for limited risk. A limited risk means no cash risk and under 1-year risk at most. A pre-business plan is exactly that. The front end is a business plan leading to a business plan implemented by a careful person to deal with the plan within a year. In this idea, the success of  BP means selling to a banker. If it works, I invest a part.

If I succeed, IIT Roorkee graduates many of who will welcome my pre-BP list. I view them as my co-investor with solving angel fund problems and living up to 1 year. If someone approached me with pre-BP and angel funds for a co-investor role, I would certainly be a civil engineer, forget the USA!

=============

Writes Sir Chakresh -

This topic can be divided into two parts. One part can be devoted to rooftop solar and the second part to commercial solar power generation.

The economics for rooftop top is very simple and straightforward. Irrespective of the capacity of the rooftop, it's a very profitable investment as it starts generating electricity from the day it is installed and connected to the system. Many of my colleagues have got it installed including me and our returns are excellent. We are confident that the investment will pay off in the next five to six years. This return period will reduce further as the solar panels' cost will keep reducing and the unit cost of the electricity will keep on increasing.
Regarding commercial solar power generation, the economics is not so simple. Firstly, the investment is large depending on the capacity of the plant and secondly, the unit rates are reducing day by day because of fierce competition as very large industrial houses have entered into this field. Hence, it's too early to give any meaningful comments on this. I hope, this clarifies at least some of the issues raised in this article.

me: I agree re roof-solar. Mainly looking for data for commercial joint solar. it will be 100 times larger. My principle regret in life is "when I could digest, had no money, now have money (2 years) can't digest." The only way my life as a naastik Hindu makes any sense is to take well-considered risks. I must leave the garden marginally better than I populated. In the USA, the deepest moment came when a nurse recounted the last words on the death bed., most common was "why did I not take the risk".
"When I could risk, had no money, now have money (2 years) let someone invest in win-win deal."


----------------------------
Writes Sir VijayG -
One question about the rooftop case:

What about long-term maintenance costs? What about the loss of efficiency from dust buildup over time? What happens when the roof leaks under a solar panel? What happens when you have to replace the roof (every 20-25 years in the US)? What happens if a growing tree, a new house/building, or a house that has added a second story, starts blocking the sun to your roof?

In my area (Silicon Valley in the US), I don't see too many homes with solar panels. Probably under 10%. Or even less. If the decision were such a no-brainer, as you say, shouldn't I see many more homes using solar panels? 

answers sir Chakresh -

Firstly, let me clarify that there is virtually no maintenance or repairs for fifteen years as the warranty for pannels is given for fifteen years when the system is installed and you may think of replacing the panels if the efficiency goes down drastically. As far as collection of dust on pannels is concerned, the same can be got cleaned at some interval, although it is not a must as the efficiency is not adversely affected to a greater extent even if pannels are not cleaned. 
Generally speaking, no new buildings are constructed close to existing buildings but if it happens, one will have to get the panels raised on the steel frame to avoid any shade on the panels.
In India, solar power generation is always beneficial as the solar system is connected to the grid and we are required to pay for only net consumption i.e units consumed from the gridless the units generated from solar panels.
In case you still need some clarification on solar power generation, I will be happy to answer them to the best of my ability.

me: I consider these for joint-solar too. Says my guy - You consider two guys, one a manager. You have a bigger plot. If it works for 2 bighas. I will expand to 33! I start with self-clean, dust will come, start that as service-0n-call for Roorkeeites with roof-s0lar. An interesting aside, the top surface of the plot is bad and agriculture has to be done in huge pots anyway.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Pre-business plan - solar electric generators



 A pre-business plan is between a back of envelope calculation and a formal business plan. The idea is to read on to determine if the critical variables of a business plan have been under stood. One would call space-x chief deliberations on hyper loop and boring company as a pre-business plan. One could hire a plan maker to convert it to a formal plan.

Two related ideas are discussed here. One is a personal roof-top solar rooftop plan roof-solar. Another is joint solar-orchard plan joint-plan. roof-solar started as as way to reduce electric bill. The joint-plan as a good business plan. Both involve non-trivial business arithmetic cost ideas.

The joint plan addresses an idea that will discourage competition other than me. Government no longer buys electricity at better rates as the cost of solar panels plummets. Now the return on electric roof with enough sun hole to shoot for semi-shade agriculture below will probably be equal to cost. It is profits from agriculture below that keeps it profitable. Such a venture absent my expertise in agriculture in chemicals and planet medicine would be ruinous. No usual farmer will be smart enough to restrict crops or understand benefits of solar cover without profit - the panels will get cheaper and coverament will lose any reasons to pressure distcoms! So I expect an early mover advantage. Competion is not a problem in next few months.

Competion is not a problem in roof-solar either, every one is welcome for many months or even years.

Now the meat - solar capital costs 50,000 per kilowatt, delivers 3 kw per 10 sqm. So a 200 kw joint-plan will cost 1 crore and need 2 bigha with half covered It will require 2 people to maintain it. also free to do agriculture and cost 10 lakh per annum, paid for by sale of electricity. Agriculture will yield the profit, under 5 lakh.

Bank will finance half to 80 %. Return will be 10% to 40%, depending on financing.

The roof-solar will cost 200,000, but draw 40% subsidy in 2021. With subsidy, electric costs will be halved in months other then overcast, and few costs. Even brainless USA methods can be used but what happens when government reduces/eliminates subsidy, risk-taking companies will bankrupt! Happened in Nevada!

Comments welcome and incorporated.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Motivation for me

 


Why is the USA so important to me? Is it being fucked and is there a way out of it? Why does India thrive? Can we predict the end of this journey? Does this matter at all to me?

The first three questions is about the USA. It is a relevant truth to me, dedicated to remaining modest citizen despite what I can achieve and ready to take risks, meaningful now since I believe in wish-death and the belief that I can partake in it. It is no longer academic.

So why did the USA fail? Why did India thrive? Why does China thrive? Understanding these issues delivers to non-actor me, meaningful prediction ability. If I understand markets that well, I will be a very rich man. I do believe that prices within a decade are best handled by chaos theory i.e. every soothsayer is a fraud. But a decade-wide or larger prediction is probabilistic and doable within the wide net of investment. That applies to both the political theory and the stock market. It is asymmetric prediction, winner prediction is slow, while losers are fast.

The hardest change in me comes from rising of India and China and the reducing strengthening of the USA. The link above blame rightly the effect of size on decision speed but that is only a visible effect, the rise of Asian giants (increasing centralization) and the weakening of the USA (increasing decentralization without effective coordination) is not caused by size but the politically correct speech by a technical specialist,  thus their weakening. Both Asians reaped the benefit of effective coordination by increasing centralization. I have believed for a long in decentralization which improves political correctness. It pails before centralization benefits, Modi wins, my feelings, because he listens to key bureaucrats as opposed to elected riff-raff. Xi gets effect for free. Both are personally uncorrupt, don't tolerate corruption, and have publically damaged lower corrupt.

One consequence in India has been the marginalization of Congress even in opposition. Better luck in HP and Uttarakhand with the solid tired-government sentiment. I predict the BJP government in UP and egg on the face of sir Akhilesh.

Modi juggernaut goes on to 2024 and likely another 5-years then. The replacement of centralization is replaced by both, chosen by effective coordination and anti-corruption transparency, even if privacy-incorrect! Political correctness is way too important and must never be abandoned even if operating in opposition. It is important to shut up political correctness sellers applying way excessive analysis to determine alleged incorrectness.

Friday, December 17, 2021

Spanish me culpa

 Medicina me culpa y Computación nueva medicina





 Me culpa significa que soy culpable. En pruebas empíricas, por lo tanto inexpugnables, el 20% de los diagnósticos de los médicos estadounidenses (los mejores en la tierra) dicen que prescribimos el medicamento equivocado, repetidamente, por lo tanto, un meta-imbécil en mi idioma. No es intencional, por lo que encontrar al culpable es una mala idea, pero las víctimas sufren y parte de la responsabilidad recae sobre los perpetradores.


Para mí, la razón es trivial para entender como científico de la computación, así como las soluciones: los pacientes tienen múltiples tipos, el enfoque de la medicina de talla única es estúpido, el mejor tipo de pacientes y luego lo hace como c ++, es decir, inventa el diagnóstico de clase o la medicina de precisión; o ir a mecanografía delegada o medicina personalizada. El médico estará mejor atendido si se enumeran los biomarcadores de diversas enfermedades y el medicamento, así como la frecuencia, el entorno (como el estómago vacío o lleno, etc.) y los efectos esperados, se derivan para los biomarcadores de cada enfermedad. Uno puede comenzar a escribir en C ++ (precisión) y pasar a personal. Es probable que la idea de diferentes fármacos para la misma enfermedad sea poco intuitiva y errónea, y es mejor expulsar a todos esos médicos si no se incluye la nueva información.


La FDA es estadounidense y los votantes allí pueden arreglar la medicina, pero yo vivo en la India con un rayo de esperanza más allá de la licencia raj, el sifarish y la victimización hindú (tanto que me llamé agnóstico, no hindú naastik) de una manera verdaderamente secular (menos tushtikaran ). Estoy orgulloso de estar a favor de la elevación a través de la reserva y los escaños políticos asignados, incluso una posición minoritaria en RSS durante mucho tiempo. La troika de Modi-Yogi-Ramdev llevará a India al siguiente nivel sin violencia. Y en Gadkari, Piyush y Sarma de Assam, etc., BJP tiene una profundidad más allá de la troika.


Hace poco se extinguieron una culpa y unos gustos muy grandes, presumiblemente capitalistas. El corredor de Kasi costó 332 millones de rupias, mejor utilizado para eliminar la desnutrición de los niños de la UP, dijo un idiota de Akhilesh. La respuesta contundente fue que si el corredor atraía solo a turistas, 3 millones de turistas que gastaban 1000 dólares cada uno, la inversión en Kashi generaría 3 mil millones por año. ¡La desnutrición durante muchos años en todo UP se solucionará para siempre con solo el 10% de impuestos! ¡Siempre que esos imitadores (supuestos) imbéciles nunca hayan estudiado con Sir Akhilesh!


Vendrán a los proyectos de Modi, pero es poco probable que vengan a los proyectos de Jinnah. Marque mis palabras para 4naths, Badri, Kedar, Gangotri y Yamnotri.


FSSAI es indio y debe incrementarse para aplicar estadísticas bayesianas, efectos cruzados aprobados por FSSAI y suplementos aprobados. No debería ser un reemplazo de la FDA, sino un complemento con ensayos igualmente respetados.


Vuelve a la medicina de precisión y personalizada. Es de esperar que los lectores comprendan la diferencia entre ellos, de ambos con la actual mm (Medicina Moderna), y su superioridad e inevitabilidad en el siglo XXI.