Tuesday, April 12, 2022

I love it

 


First time in my life that I find a massive bug in the thinking of 6 bio-professionals and doctors, writing in a peer reviewed publication with an absurd (to me) conclusion of hard limit on human life of 120-150 years.

 

Roughly, the paper proceeds to collect all relevant metrics into a vector called DOSI. It then applies Gompertz law to the values. Clearly, a component that diverges must exist.

 

Gompertz law is basic to life-insurance calculations. It enforces the observation that an exponential risk happens of death after 80. It is an old wrong law. The risk of death is constant per period afterwards, ie a linear risk after age 100. Even that is sufficient to enable the 120-150byear limit. But all the derivations are based on scientific observations absent interventions in centenarians. One immediately nullifies Gompertz law, nothing of it remains!

 

Paper as I read

Gompertz

No comments:

Post a Comment