Why some prospered
Central to my thinking is rationalization of why USA prospered, as did Hitler Germany, Apartheid South Africa, Israel and China. While good in eyes of some, USA is micro-corrupt, as is Hitler Germany, Israel and China. So is India before Modi but faltering economy despite since then. No one knows the future, best estimate are forward market! I did some arithmetic, that showed me Forward rupee sinks 2.5% uniformly for next 5 years validated by projections 5 years ago when it depreciated 2.5%. So dollar is expected to be Rs. 85 in 2025. Despite fierce losses in Q1, Modi rate happens in Q3 and Q4. Q2 is tip of bad V.
In each case, the mechanism of markets is reward for innovation. That is so simple but profound. When its comes to external trade, you have no choice but submit to the innovator and buy the stuff! Consider military stuff. China has a huge submarine fleet. Per force, India has to buy 8i aircraft. Several other innovations from the USA, Russia, France and Israel. Pay in dollars for most. Despite being poor! Another is Soft innovation from Hollywood, publishers etc. There is magic Madison Avenue plays on undefined quality, but sane leadership can kill local and ads moronic, not done but simple, every ad subhuman will hate my prescription - can't run a single ad before paying for equal time to competitors! Total control without any management. Third huge area is drugs. YOU GOT TO PAY WHETHER POOR OR NOT.
West prospered despite every stupidity because they developed innovation through invention of patents. I claim that civilized version of laws, despite crushing of virtues, is essentially irrelevant. Virtues are NOT irrelevant because society-wide pursuit is never a prescription of decline. No matter what the ideology, political, social and religious etc - collectively ideologies and politicians leaders are essentially irrelevant. Not that they can make, but they can break. What matters ultimately is the reward structure. The society may be very corrupt - commie Russia, china, Africaan South Africa etc. In many ways, Singapore and UAE are ugly, yet they develop on. It is not just small states but china. Less corrupt societies develop, as can be seen comparing west, in every case it happened top down, and in each case, it declined by corruption at the top. My basic goal is to develop a system like patents and enclosure of the commons i.e. private property - these are not religious prescriptions but society chosen methods and perhaps amenable to societies. This is stark different from most existing ideologies and religions like nature has given rights etc. No ideology can aver that it is good because its axioms are self-evident - basis of all science is experimentation and (true false) lessons from not experimentable systems. To REQUIRE false observations as well is starkly different from most current social science whose predictions can be forgotten like sailers who saw divine worlds or believers in empirical post death experience or UFO abductors!
This approach is fundamental basis of my think. Any system that depends on human will be corrupt regardless, small amounts in the USA is fewer rules (liberty) and humorlessness! People have respect for law, but note small-time violation in New York City with abusive paint-can works and jumping tiles! It is NOT generic superiority but conditioned richer population, large number of well-off law-avoiders, but they call it freedom of lawyers! Ideal law is when violations are detected and punished automatically, by robots and computers. There is no fear of information misuse since guaranteed by proven security software. Missing that humans are used, but only then. The paid software rule is actually a corollary to general way more powerful idea that demand equal space and time for every copyrightable!
A far more powerful and just society results from identifying English/computerese correspeces compactly indicated by noun/object, abstract-noun/object, verb/operation, adjective/type, adverb/type, punctuation/meta object etc. Computer and human language can be the same, even internable through spoken translators that front end software solutions. Robot instructions can be built easily. In fact, my wisdom on insisting on Redmi 8 (now 9) is wise only because it has, unusually for mobiles, an in-built infrared which allows download of control software for TV, camera, ac, microwave, fan, lights today!
A whole slew of companies is built on innovation and prospered immensely by building on innovation from 1980 to 2010. Stage is now set for new crop built on innovation that will uproot and kill innovation last 30 year wave, ready to die as dependent on experience. Innovation kills the experienced! The higher level experienced try hard to save the less experienced but kill the company! Innovation worship implies a fish eat fish world without ethics.
The coming decade is going to be of mechanism operated by speech. Google and Amazon both have the guts of control of mechanisms. Time to build new mechanism with voice control. Robotics comes next - mind you translating speech into commands can be generic and fail-small companies. Forget stem cells! It will be of application of Yamanaka factors to all old-age diseases! Most Indians are not aware of that.
The kisan Andolan of today is so simple to understand - there are wealthy sons of Punjab and Haryana. The manipulated are farmers of rest of India. Every one is terrified of market mechanism which will allow market valuation of bulk produce. Non-contract as evaluated by market at sale time. Farmers of P & H can see the second green revolution happening. They want to kill all benefits for small farmers. There is a simple fix! Center gives MSP rights to states and choice to accept central laws or make their own. Emfubars all commies, congress and AAM aadmi. The P & H wealthy kisans will be hurt forcing their government to set proper MSP! It all depends on whether there is second green revolution. They are likely to be ruined by state MSP prices or the free market. They are likely to continue futile agitation. Furthermore, they CAN be law forced to allow traffic and be fully free to many year agitations. Be prepared to firings.
